Constituencies in Focus - Amber Valley

June 27, 2024

On 22nd May 2024, the Prime Minister announced in the rain that a General Election would be held on 4th July. The political atmosphere was tense, with polls showing the Conservatives at around 20% and Labour consistently above 40%. This indicated a challenging campaign ahead for the Prime Minister.

In this article, we will look into one of the key battlegrounds: Amber Valley in Derbyshire. This constituency has been a bellwether, aligning with the party that has won the most parliamentary seats nationally since 1983.

Constituency Profile

The Amber Valley constituency encompasses the three large towns of Alfreton, Heanor and Ripley. It is a blend of rural and semi-urban areas, offering a microcosm of the broader national political landscape.

The local economy has shifted in recent decades, away from its roots in coal mining and manufacturing into professional and service-based industries. The area has also recently seen some big investments, such as the Heanor Future High Streets Fund from the Government and efforts from Amber Valley Borough Council to promote the area's cultural heritage .

The constituency demographics reflect a predominantly working-class population, with a mix of older residents and young families. This demographic mix makes Amber Valley a key constituency for both major political parties, as they seek to appeal to its varied electorate.

Previous General Election Results

In the 2019 General Election, Conservative incumbent MP Nigel Mills solidified his hold on Amber Valley, winning with a strong majority of 16,886 and 63.8% of the vote over Labours 26.8%. Since 2010, Mills has increased his vote share and majority at every election, demonstrating that he has kept a strong base of support among his constituents.

2024 Candidates

• Linsey Farnsworth, Labour – A local Amber Valley Borough Councillor elected in May 2023 and a former International Liaison Prosecutor.
• Matt McGuinness, Green – A local musician and mental health activist, has previously unsuccessfully stood for the Constituency and Amber Valley Borough Council.
• Nigel Mills, Conservative – Incumbent MP since 2010, previously stood as a Heanor Town and Amber Valley Borough Councillor before being elected to Parliament.
• Kate Smith, Liberal Democrats – A local Amber Valley Borough Councillor, has previously unsuccessfully stood for the constituency.
• Alex Stevenson, Reform – A local businessman, was previously a Conservative Borough and County Councillor before being suspended due to anti-vaccine and antisemitic statements.

Polling

Recent polls suggest this will be a competitive race, with both the Conservative and Labour parties vying for the win. Electoral Calculus currently has the Conservatives with a 21% chance of winning the seat to Labour’s 79%.

The latest YouGov MRP polling for Sky News, which was a survey of just under 40,000 people between the 11th and 18th of June 2024, has the Conservatives and Reform UK neck and neck with 27.6% and 26.7% respectively.

The rise of Reform UK in this constituency poses a significant challenge to the Conservative campaign. While they aren’t expected to win the seat, they seem to be taking a substantial portion of the Conservative vote.

Predictions

Given its history of fluctuating political allegiance, predicting the outcome in Amber Valley is challenging. Local issues, party campaigns, and national dynamics will all play crucial roles in determining the result.

While Labour currently appears to have the upper hand - primarily due to Reform UK's impact on Conservative voters - any tightening in the polls, alongside targeted campaigning from the Conservatives could increase the chance of Amber Valley remaining blue.

DevComms works with many key political stakeholders, if you would like to know what the General Election and new candidates may mean for you, your business and your development sites - please get in touch.

Jack Boyce | Dominic Stanford | Jake Gilbert