A few thoughts on the General Election...

July 5, 2024

Labour

The Labour Party secured a resounding victory with a substantial majority, nearly reaching the levels of Tony Blair's 1997 triumph. The Red Wall has been successfully reconstructed within a single election cycle, a remarkable feat that no one could have predicted back in December 2019.

While this outcome is almost exclusively positive for Sir Keir Starmer and his mandate over the next five years, there were some setbacks in traditionally strong Labour city areas, particularly those with a significant Green and Pro-Palestine presence.

This morning, the planning and development industry markets responded positively to the election results. I am hopeful that Labour will now follow through on their promises to make near-immediate changes to the planning system. It will also be interesting to see how they move forward without alienating their numerous new MPs who now represent constituents residing in Green Belt areas, who often have NIMBY tendencies.

Conservatives

It was an undeniably dismal night for the Conservatives, with results slightly more disheartening than the exit poll suggested.

To put it simply, the party suffered heavily from the impact of Reform and lost all the seats they had gained for the first time in 2019, as well as every seat they held in Wales, for the first time since 1997.

A small silver lining for the Conservatives is that they will remain the official opposition, and some may argue that the outcome was not as dire as certain polls predicted.

As the Conservatives have been on a trajectory towards opposition for quite some time, their most urgent priority lies in restructuring and leadership succession. These steps have been on the horizon for some time and will be pivotal in defining the party's future path and their prospects of regaining power.

Get in touch if you want to talk Leadership election watch...

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats had a historic night. To provide context, while Labour impressively doubled their parliamentary representation, the Liberal Democrats have increased theirs tenfold, albeit from a modest starting point.

Interestingly, despite being the primary advocates for replacing the first-past-the-post voting system, the Liberal Democrats have benefited the most from this system in this election, having secured the highest number of seats relative to their overall vote share.

Reform

Reform has played a significant role in shaping the outcome of the election. They have won a significant vote share, even if they only got four seats.

As Reform (and Nigel Farage) establishes itself in Parliament, we will have to wait and see how their presence and publicity influence not only the broader parliamentary discussions (in a post-Brexit world) but also the forthcoming Tory Leadership election.

Others

The Greens have achieved a significant milestone in this election, securing all four of their target seats and, in the process, attaining their best-ever result. These victories are particularly noteworthy given the starkly different geographic locations in which they occurred.

The SNP had a night to forget, experiencing their worst performance in recent memory. With a leadership change still fresh in their minds and a looming existential crisis regarding their core focus—whether to prioritize progressiveness or independence—the SNP finds itself at a critical juncture. The party's next steps will undoubtedly be of great interest, particularly in light of the recent turmoil surrounding the leadership contest and the controversial gender reform bill.

What next

For the political enthusiasts, Labour has significantly expanded their parliamentary presence without dramatically altering their 2019 vote share, leading some to label their victory a "super 'meh'-jority."

Voting patterns and polls indicate that the primary motivation for voting was the removal of the Conservatives, rather than a desire for Labour's proposed era of "Change."

Considering the recent willingness of voters to switch allegiances and the majorities achieved in the last two general elections, Labour must demonstrate tangible results in this Parliament to maintain power. Conversely, the Conservatives must respond swiftly to rebuild trust and their brand and could look to Sir Keir Starmer's example to see how to do it well.

Big wins*

• Farage and Tice (Reform)
• Jeremy Hunt (Con)
• James Cleverly (Con)
• Jeremy Corbyn (Ind)
• Wes Streeting...as an unexpected near miss (Lab)
• Carla Denyer (Green)

Big losses*

• Liz Truss (Con)
• Penny Mordaunt (Con)
• Grant Shapps (Con)
• Jonathan Ashworth (Lab)
• Sir Michael Fabricant (Con)
• Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
• Thangam Debbonaire (Lab)

* In no particular order, and without identifying the reasons why!